Exciting times! Here we go with the new blog. The first post has a bit about me and a Mission Statement for Star Tracking plus the first 10 horses you may want to start “tracking”. In the directory above I have suggested a few trackers you may like to use. The last three editions of my SimpleSimonSays Weekend Reviews are filed above. As always I crave feedback of any sort.
I am a horse racing afficianado of forty years standing who enjoys the daily battle with the bookmaking fraternity. Much as finding winners is the aim it is the why, where, who and when that really rocks my boat. Every race tackled is like an exam where the right answer is most satisfying but extra marks are gained for showing my workings.
I am a massive fan of, in no particular order, Oddschecker, Tom Segal, Doncaster, Richard Fahey, Ryan Moore, York, Ken Pitterson, the Racing Post, Hugo Palmers website, George Chaloner, Adam Norman, Dan Skelton, Sandown, John Gosden and for six months of the year the Cheltenham Festival!
I am on twitter @mooresthepity.
To identify horses that are future winners that you can put in your horse tracker(s)
Each day I will blog that days runners that are already on my Master List and in my tracker and tell you why they are there.
I will analyse the race conditions (ground, distance and grade) and the current form of horse and trainer and recommend either a bet (on a scale of 1-5 stars) or a watching brief.
I will blog the result of the previous days #startracking runners and why I think they should either be kept on or taken off YOUR Tracker.
I will profile extra horses from the previous day that you may also want to add to YOUR Tracker.
On quiet days I will provide some background information on jockeys and trainers that will hopefully assist your punting decision making and expand your knowledge of the sport we love.
My two previous blogs 49SimpleSimonSays.wordpress.com (NH racing) and 57SimpleSimonSays.wordpress.com (Flat racing) have become too cumbersome and time consuming. They will remain on line and I will endeavour to get them up to date so that they can act as a sort of “Nag-ipedia”.
1st December 2015
startracking Tuesday December 1st 2015
Right let’s get down to business. Here are the first ten that you may wish to put into your tracker.
BAGS GROOVE (Harry Fry) On bumper debut this 4yo son of Oscar gave previous winner Criq Rock a real race in a C4 Ascot bumper on good to soft ground with 14L back to the third. Harry Fry paid 40K guineas for him and being out of a Roselier mare it is possible the very best of him won’t be seen until he jumps a fence, however a similar bumper is there for the taking and he showed enough speed to suggest he could be tidy over hurdles.
Mark Howard (One Jump ahead) wrote “Paul Nicholls’ former assistant came close to making it a four timer in the bumper with debutant Bags Groove finishing a close second. The front two pulled clear of the rest and the Oscar gelding will be hard to beat next time.”
Harry Fry wrote on his website “Bags Groove, on his racecourse debut, came tantalising close to giving us a fourth winner on the card in the closing bumper. He led into the final furlong before lack of experience told as he was caught close home by Criq Rock who was more streetwise on his fourth start.”
BUVEUR D’AIR (Nicky Henderson) This French bred 4yo was unbeaten in two junior bumpers in France before being acquired by Portensis and Chris Giles and sent to Nicky Henderson. His bumper form last season was of the highest order running 2nd in a Listed race at Newbury and 4th in the G1 at Aintree, both times behind Barters Hill. On hurdles debut he was headed in the market by Cheltenham Champion Bumper 3rd Wait for Me but in the race Buveur D’Air was so much more professional, hurdling neatly as the favourite made continuous mistakes and he cruised past on the run in winning by 11L, 6L & 19L. This one could go right to the top with the only concern being does he need soft ground.
CAPARD KING (Jonjo O’Neill) Here is a horse with a very interesting profile. This son of Beneficial started off as a 5yo in three Irish points with form figures of F42. After finishing 4th in a Tipperary bumper Jonjo O’Neill paid £45K for him and ran him in three novice hurdles (18.5F 3rd btn 19L, 18.5F 6th btn 50L, 19.5F 8th btn 46L) and he was given a handicap mark of 103. Then promptly stepped up to 24F+ he won three out of four ending up on 135. That is Prescott-esque! However his trainer hadn’t finished there as first time out this season off his hurdle mark he ran in a 24F C3 Novice handicap chase and promptly won that. He jumped soundly, although hanging right on the run in, he saw off two solid yardsticks in Seldom Inn and Kings Odyssey and has been raised to OR139. It is fair to say that stepping up to 3 miles and the sight of a fence has brought about some improvement! I think there is a good C2 3m+ handicap in Capard King and then a pop at one of the Festival 3m handicap chases probably the one on the Tuesday.
CAROLES DESTRIER (Neil Mulholland) These are the thoughts of his trainer in his ATR Stable Tour on 24th November 2015. “He made a pleasing reappearance in the Badger Ales Chase when finishing fifth to Drop Out Joe under topweight. He will run in the London Handicap Chase at Sandown on December 5 or will go to Cheltenham on December 12 for the three mile two furlong December Handicap Chase.”
8yo Carole’s Destrier is a solid 3m+ handicap chaser who knows how to win and 146 is a workable mark in my opinion and after that promising return to action in the Badger when he was right there three out, his shrewd trainer should be able to find the right race. He is in at Sandown on Saturday and right handed is good (four of his five wins have been RH) plus the extra 4F could well eke out further improvement. Would like to see Noel Fehily in the saddle.
COPPER KAY (Philip Hobbs) The horse that impressed me most over the three days of the Cheltenham Open Meeting was the winner of the Listed Mares Bumper COPPER KAY. She looked magnificent in the pre parade ring, she has size and scope and she sprinted away from a classy field that included eight previous winners. Will Philip Hobbs keep her in bumpers? Will he keep her against her own sex? Will he send her hurdling and target the new race next March? If she turned up in the Dawn Run she has to be respected, likewise if she is in the line-up for the Champion Bumper.
DE NAME ESCAPES ME (Noel Meade) I hope I haven’t missed the boat with this one as he has won his last two and I’ve been impressed both times. One run in an Irish PtP then he won a Clonmel bumper easily by 8L+ for the Keatings who sold him to JP McManus who put him into training with Noel Meade. He was third behind Sandymount Duke and the well thought of Klinnsman in a June Punchestown maiden hurdle on good ground but given three months off he has won a 16F Down Royal maiden hurdle and under a penalty won at Fairyhouse at the weekend over 4F further wearing a hood for the first time having been given a mark of 123.
In Noel Meade’s ATR Stable Tour on October 8th his trainer said “The first day we ran him he just took a hell of a strong hold and was too free to give himself a chance of getting home. It was two-and-a-half miles that day, so we’ll drop him back to two miles next time and hopefully that will suit him better. I think he’ll appreciate soft ground, maybe not heavy ground, but I do like him and I think he will do well.”
After his last win I found this on Twitter “Irishracing.com Live @IrishRacing365 · Nov 28 “Likes soft ground but I think he’s better over 2m. Plenty of boot” Noel Meade, De Name Escapes Me 11/10fav @Fairyhouse.
If the handicapper puts him up say 10lb at worse he could be interesting in one of the 2m Christmas handicaps although he has a 33/1 quote from Boylesports for the Supreme at Cheltenham and he has an entry in the Leopardstown Christmas festival Future Champions novice hurdle.
FINGERONTHESWITCH (Neil Mulholland) I don’t think I will be alone in putting this one up as he was an eye catching 4th in the Conditionals handicap at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. Under 8lb claimer Shane Quinlan he was UknowwhatImeanharry’s only market rival but was one paced from the last. Off a mark of 123 his trainer said ““He ran a cracker at Cheltenham on his latest start when finishing fourth over two mile and five furlongs. He wants three miles and has done very little wrong.” This son of Beneficial has already won an Irish PtP and staying chasing may be his game but in the meantime my ears would certainly prick up if he ran in a Pertemps qualifier because if he could get his mark up 12lb with a couple of wins I could see that being his race. In last week’s Weekender Mulholland said ”I’ll be looking to running him over 3m soon. He is a very genuine horse and I think there’s a nice bit more to come.”
FLETCHERS FLYER (Harry Fry) His trainer had this to say in his Stable Tour “He has done well over the summer and we are looking forward to sending him novice chasing. He has always looked a chaser in the making and he could do even better over fences.” I think he made his chasing debut in an above average Exeter novice chase where he and the winner, OnenightinVienna (also on this list!), came 54L clear of the third leading to Mark Howard (One Jump Ahead) writing “Onenightinvienna made an excellent start to his chasing career when beating the highly regarded Fletchers Flyer by a length and a quarter in a compelling three miles novices’ chase at Exeter… It shouldn’t be long before the runner-up goes one better.” I expect him to win his novice chase sooner rather than later and look forward to young Harry revealing what plans he has for the “Flyer”.
NITROGEN (Harry Fry) His trainer had this to say about this gelded 8yo son of Old Vic “He’s a half-brother to Best Mate and will benefit from stepping up to three miles over fences this season. He goes for a novice handicap chase and we are obviously hoping he takes to fences.” Well he did, running a very promising 3rd to Spookydooky over a trip probably too short for him, keeping on when others had cried enough. Noel Fehily gave him a tender, educational ride out the back which should pay dividends in the long run. It will need too as well known owner Mr Roach paid 170K euro’s for him and he didn’t get on to a racecourse until he was a 7yo. This was only his fourth race so we have a well bred horse with low mileage on the clock in the right hands off a mark of 121. 3m should do the trick.
ONENIGHTINVIENNA (Philip Hobbs) This is one of only three horses that Philip Hobbs put forward as having Cheltenham potential and the way he won at Exeter on debut suggests it will be the 4m NH chase, currently quoted at 16/1. We should have a lot of fun with this one over the next few seasons. Mark Howard (One Jump Ahead) wrote “Onenightinvienna made an excellent start to his chasing career when beating the highly regarded Fletchers Flyer by a length and a quarter in a compelling three miles novices’ chase at Exeter. Tom O’Brien timed his run to perfection aboard the former Irish pointer as he mastered Harry Fry’s charge on the run-in. Progressive over hurdles last spring, he threatens to make an even better chaser with realistic Cheltenham Festival aspirations. It will be interesting to see if he heads to Prestbury Park next month for the staying novice chase.”
All things being equal and a following wind there should be another batch tomorrow.