#startracking Cheltenham Day One Monday March 14th

Well it’s here and basically the talking has to stop and the punting has to start.

1.30 Supreme Novices Hurdle This is a Festival defining race and it’s all about Min. IF he wins, the rest of the Mullins fancied horses will be really tight prices due to the running on liabilities, if he loses we can look forward to seeing those fancied horses drift quite drastically. Will the High Street bookies want to take him on? Oh Yes, I can see someone going a headline 3/1 (and WH will have to match it!) tomorrow morning, even if only for ten minutes, and he will go off around 9/4?

Will Min win? Every chance but I think there is too much of his connections in the price and not his form. Altior is a higher rated horse with Grade 1 winning form, Buveur D’Air is unbeaten in two but trainer Nicky Henderson has a habit of hitting the bar in this race. I can’t have Bellshill, who I think needs further. So I’m putting up two in double figures. Tombstone who I think has gears and quicker ground will be of real benefit, mildly concerned even the owner questioned his resolution! Supasundae jumped slightly worse than Josses Hill initially but last year’s Champion Bumper 6th, a son of Galileo, could easily outrun his odds if those hurdles don’t get in the way!

2.10 Arkle Novices Chase Simple. Douvan. Only seven runners.

2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase I have a strong fancy for “THE YOUNG MASTER 7yo OR149 One of last season’s rising stars and partly acquired by the Waley-Cohens last November. Unseated Sam at the first when well fancied in the Hennessey. A solid staying on fourth to Wakanda at Ascot and then given a run in the Cleeve Hurdle which statistically is a positive and supposedly looked after his competitive mark.”

I will put up Morning Assembly as an alternative as I totally agree with Donn McClean, ““Morning Assembly is nine years old now, but he proved in his two runs this season that he retains lots of ability, and he will be an interesting contender in the Ultima Handicap Chase. Pat Fahy’s horse was one of the top staying novice chasers two seasons ago among a highly talented crop of staying novice chasers. …  He should appreciate the step back up in trip, a handicap rating of 149 gives him a chance, and Pat Fahy has had his horses in tremendous form all season.”

3.30 Champion Hurdle Not sure I want to play? Nicholls Canyon has all Grade 1 form and has only been beaten by Faugheen and Shaneshill. Camping Ground gives him a lead to two out, NC kicks on and Annie Power (who has to be taken on) and The New One run on into the places.

4.10 Mares Hurdle Don’t like the shape of the race at all. Polly Peachum e/w if I had to!

4.50 4m NH chase (Amateur Riders) Three against the field. A race where the pilot is as important as his conveyance! Just can’t have Minella Rocco, just doesn’t race like a winner. Love Local Show’s jumping and prominent racing style. Native River’s win at Newbury gives him every chance and Will Biddick teams up with Vicente, who has won round Cheltenham and must have a squeeze!

5.30 2m5f Novices Handicap Chase What a weird race we have now? Just 4lbs from top to bottom in a field of 20! All three of my early fancies failed to make the cut. Had a second look and I want an improver and Double Shuffle fits the bill. As the form ties in 1 will suggest Fourth Act as an alternative.

 

and here’s how the Festival looks overall

 

Cheltenham 2016 Master Plan (1.30pm Mon.Mar.14th)

Enter as many tipster competitions as possible!

Check out daily offers in big 4 betting shops Only bet Best Odds Guaranteed                     

Daily win Lucky 15 – Daily Placepot (Scoop 6?)

TUESDAY

Race 1 1.30pm Supreme 2m Novices Hurdle

Single (s) Tombstone (**) and Supasundae (*) where free bet if 2nd or 3rd

Race 2 2.10pm Arkle 2m Novices Chase

DOUVAN is a banker.

Check out “without market”. Select a “place” horse for SP orientated competitions. Sizing John

Race 3 2.50pm Ultima 3m 1f G3 Hcp Chase (11st 12lb topweight = OR153ish) OR132+

Possibly use “free bet” from Race 1.

The Young Master (***) Morning Assembly (*)

Race 4 3.30pm Champion Hurdle

Not sure I want to play? Nicholls Canyon

Race 5 4.10pm Mares Hurdle

VROUM VROUM MAG is a banker or IS SHE?

Check out “without market”. Select a “place” horse for SP orientated competitions. Polly Peachum/Rons Dream

Race 6 4.50pm 4m National Hunt Chase

Look for 4 or 5 places and just one selection or

Local Show (**) Native River (*) Vicente (*)

Race 7 5.30pm Close Brothers 2m 5f G3 Hcp Chase (11st 10lb topweight = OR140 5yo’s get 1lb) OR136+

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Double Shuffle (*) Fourth Act (*)

WEDNESDAY

Race 1 1.30pm Neptune 2m 5f Novices Hurdle

Single (s) Yorkhill, (*)A Toi Phil (*) OOSeven (*) where free bet if 2nd and 3rd

Race 2 2.10pm RSA 3m+ Novices Chase

Don’t know! Have to take No More Heroes on @ 5/2. Ground dependent boat or next Gold Cup contender? Just gone through form and More of That (***** Nap of meeting)

Race 3 2.50pm Coral Cup 2m 5f G3 Hcp Hurdle (11st 9lb topweight = OR156ish) OR140ish

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Politologue (**) Baoulet Delaroque (*e/w)

Race 4 3.30pm QM Champion Chase

UN de SCEAUX is a banker.

Check out “without market”. Select a “place” horse for SP orientated competitions. Sire de Grugy

Race 5 4.10pm Cross Country

Put the kettle on! Allegedly Dolatulo (OR145) and Foxrock (OR157) are going to run in this?

Race 6 4.50pm 2m Fred Winter 4yo Handicap Hurdle

Hardest race of the twenty eight available! OR132ish, ran in last 32 days, French Bred, top four in market?

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Selection + ½ Saver + ½ Saver     Messire des Obeaux (**) Campeador (*) Romain de Senam (*)

Race 7 5.30pm Champion Bumper

Wide open this year. You have to start with Mullins. Fillies are strong? Bacardys (**) NewtothisTown (*)

THURSDAY

Race 1 1.30pm JLT 2m 4f Novices Chase

Single (s) Garde La Victoire (*) and Three Musketeers (*e/w) where free bet if 2nd or 3rd

Race 2 2.10pm Pertemps Network 3m Listed Hcp Hurdle (11st 10lb topweight = OR152ish) OR140ish

If In Doubt (***) Mall Dini (**) Our Kaempfer (*)

Race 3 2.50pm RyanAir 2m 5f Chase

Currently impossible as who’s running in it?

Race 4 3.30pm World Hurdle

Thistlecrack looks a standout on this seasons form.

Select a “place” horse for SP orientated competitions. Saphir du Rheu (**e/w) Bobs Worth

Race 5 4.10pm Brown Advisory Plate G3 2m 5f Handicap Chase

Run at a previous festival, won at C3 or above around this trip. 10st 11lb or less. David Pipe. Conditional.

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Selection + ½ Saver + ½ Saver     Johns Spirit/Stilletto

Race 6 4.50pm Kim Muir Amateur Riders 3m 1f+ 0-145 Handicap Chase

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection

or Selection + ½ Saver + ½ Saver Another Hero/The Job is Right/Cause of Causes

Race 7 5.30pm Mares Novices Hurdle

New race for 2016. Cheltenham equivalent of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot! Minimum stakes.

LIMINI is a warm favourite.

Check out “without market”. Select a “place” horse for SP orientated competitions. Smart Talk

FRIDAY

Race 1 1.30pm 4yo Triumph Hurdle

Single (s) Sceau Royal and Footpad where free bet if 2nd or 3rd

Race 2 2.05pm County 2m 1f G3 Handicap Hurdle (11st 12lb topweight = OR146ish) OR137ish

One of my favourite races of the year. Under 16/1, second season unexposed hurdler

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Selection + ½ Saver + ½ Saver     Modus/Wait For Me/Superb Story

Race 3 2.40pm Alfred Bartlett 3m Novices Hurdle

BARTERS HILL is a warm favourite.

Check out “without market”. Select a “place” horse for SP orientated competitions. Gangster/Ballydine

This race is another one for the night before!

Race 4 3.20pm Gold Cup

Should be the highlight of the Festival. Committed to Vautour.

Race 5 4.00pm Foxhunters

Put the kettle on!

Skybet just (Tues. 8th March) gone 10/3 On The Fringe. Had to be backed! It Came to Pass?

Race 6 4.40pm Martin Pipe 2m 4f 0-145 Handicap Hurdle (11st 10lb topweight = OR145) Compressed handicap?

Another one of my favourite races of the year.

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Selection + ½ Saver + ½ Saver     Squouateur/It’s a Freebie/Jetstream Jack

Race 7 5.15pm Grand Annual 2m+ G3 Handicap Chase

Look for 5 or 6 places and just one selection or

Selection + ½ Saver + ½ Saver    Minella Present/Rock the World/Croco Bay

 

FIVE TO TAKE ON

MIN                                       Tuesday 1.30                      Supreme Novices Hurdle

Too much of his price is based on his connections and not the form in the book and there isn’t much of that!

ANNIE POWER                  Tuesday 3.30                      Champion Hurdle

One run in a three horse exhibition in twelve months and SHE is 7/4 to win a Championship?!?

NO MORE HEROES          Wednesday 2.10              RSA

Needs ground Soft or worse and none of his form this season has been franked.

BRISTOL DE MAI               Thursday 1.30                    JLT

Bit like NMH on Good ground this impeccable fencer could be done for toe!

BARTERS HILL                    Friday 2.50                          Alfred Bartlett

Same again on Good ground this real battler could be done for toe!

 

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