Still working on the Craven report, be with you very soon!
Can’t believe the weather is still playing havoc with the racing and with such a varied forecast up and down the country one can’t bet with confidence, certainly not on the Flat turf. Solid bets hard to come by.
Never thought I would see a Classic trial like the Greenham on the AW!?
#Saturday Fab Four
Thirsk 1.45 ONE BOY 6/1
Ayr 3.00 STERNRUBIN 8/1
Ayr 4.10 MASTERS HILL 33/1
Ayr 4.45 ARBRE DE VIE 7/2
One point lucky 15 with a one point each way four fold. (e.g 17 bets @ 50p = £8.50)
The Newbury Saturday card has been moved to the AW at Chelmsford. The clock watching fraternity are suggesting on Twitter that the course is running slow.
Chelmsford 2.10 DARTMOUTH As a 3yo he did the 57SimpleSimonSays… Master List a few favours last season and I’m delighted to see him remain in training as a 4yo as he could well make up into a solid Group horse over 12F. As for this race, he ran OK on the AW last time out at Kempton back in November and Stoute’s yard is flying. However I think he’ll improve for the run and the trip may stretch his stamina and hopefully this will set him up for Royal Ascot (Duke of Edinburgh Handicap, please?). Watching Brief.
Chelmsford 3.15 TASLEET This is a four runner G3 Greenham over 7F and he has a real chance. As a 2yo he was three from six and he won the big sales race at York over 6F, was second to Shalaa in the G2 Richmond at Goodwood and was chinned in the G3 Somerville Tattersalls Stakes. He is a two star** win selection if you can get odds against. Currently Evens with Ladbrokes.
Chelmsford 3.50 GABRIALS KAKA The six year old has never run on the sand before and I’m not sure his hold up style of running is going to be suited by Stall 1. 5/1 is too short, he’s a double figure horse if there ever was one! Watching Brief.
Chelmsford 5.00 DARSHINI Another of Sir Michael Stoute’s who as a 3yo he did the 57SimpleSimonSays… Master List a few favours last season and I’m delighted to see him remain in training as a 4yo. Starts off at 10F on his seasonal debut and if Ryan Moore could bounce him out of stall 2, grab the rail and try to make all, he may just be a tough cookie to pass. He is a one star win* @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes.
Ayr 3.00 STERNRUBIN A few old friends here, including last week’s best mate Ivan Grozny, but I can see no reason any of those who have finished behind Sternrubin should beat him here. His one bad run was in the Betfair when he fair spat the dummy out in that horrible ground but in this field of thirteen I can see champion jockey elect, Richard Johnson, controlling this race from tape to line. I think he is a cracking two star** each way selection @ 10/1 with the ever generous William Hill.
Ayr 3.00 SOME PLAN Ho hum? Just don’t know what to make of this fella. His fourth in the Ladbroke would put him in with a squeak and if the little tinker did oblige expect to hear the words, “wind op”, “tinkered with his breathing” etc. etc. He wears a hood and a tongue tie, which probably says it all and it may take more than Harry Cobdens 5lb claim to get him in the winner’s enclosure. Nervous Watching Brief!
Ayr 3.00 IVAN GROZNY Teenager of the moment David Mullins is reunited with last week’s money spinner and the handicapper suggests he is still five pounds well in. However he goes back to the well just seven days later and I’m not sure he is that sort of horse? I can see why he runs and it’s a flat, left handed track over two miles with Soft ground conditions so it’s a one star* win saver @ 4/1 general.
Ayr 4.10 Scottish National. Posted blog yesterday.
Ayr 4.45 ARBRE DE VIE This horse is a winner waiting to happen and I think all the stars are aligned for him to romp home here. Didn’t take to fences this season and reverted to hurdles when a “never put in the race” 10th in the Coral Cup when the vibes had been negative in the run up to that race. Here the trip is right, the ground is right, Mullins wants winners, Townend is on board and his fourth in last season’s G1 Alfred Bartlett at Cheltenham suggests he could simply be a better horse than his rivals. I recommend piling in and he is a four star**** NAP selection @ 4/1 with Paddy Power. That price is disappearing fast!
Thirsk 1.45 ONE BOY A new purchase out of Michael Dods yard and not a horse on my radar until he was brought to my attention by Mark Howard’s summer publication and in it Tom O’Ryan (Racing UK, sportinglife.com columnist, brother of Robin, Fahey’s Assistant trainer and now according to Racing Post’s Fahey Stable Tour is “Racing Advisor” to the Musley Bank empire!!) puts up eight Fahey horses to follow and this is one of them! When you look at his form he hasn’t won for 16 runs and two years BUT the last time he ran in a C5 5F handicap off his present mark of OR75 he won!! He’s drawn 4 here but only 12 run, Adam McNamara takes off 7lbs and we will have a one star* win dabble @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes and I wouldn’t be surprised if this price collapsed! His trainer was understandably cautious. RF to sportinglife.com “..Thirsk on Saturday starting with One Boy in division one of the Book At thirskracecourse.net For Discounted Entry Handicap. He’s drawn four which wouldn’t normally be ideal but they can win from there on soft ground here. It’s his first run for us so we’ll see what happens. He’s still a little backward in his coat but we’re happy with him and he could run well.”
Nottingham 7.55 DANCING YEARS I think this is the best of Tony Hamilton’s four rides for Fahey at Nottingham. She improved throughout her 2yo season and she is swift being by Iffraaj, will be OK on the ground and if she is ready she will win. The market closer to the race will probably tell you more but she is a one star win* @ a huge 9/2 with PP. RF to sportinglife.com “Dancing Years goes in the Todays Racing Just 10 With RacingUK Handicap. Like a few of our fillies she’s another who is backward in her coat but it’s nice to get her going again. She’s won on soft ground before and fitness wise is fairly well there. The race will bring her on but we’re happy with her.”
Sir Michael Stoute is four winners, two seconds and two thirds from just thirteen 3yo runners this season. That is a 31% strike rate and +£5.70 to a level £.
Nottingham 5.55 Scottish Summit C5 12F Soft Ted Durcan rides.
Wolver. 7.40 Muwaary C5 12F AW Gibbons rides
Chelmsford 1.35 Mustashry C5 8F AW Dane O’Neill rides
Chelmsford 1.35 Poets Word C5 8F AW Ryan Moore rides